The Run In & Play Off Prospects

[Tony]

12 games to go with 7 at home and 5 away. 3 are against teams currently in the play off places (St Albans, Worthing and Bath), 3 against teams currently in the relegation places (Eastbourne, Dover and Taunton). Football Web Pages predicted final table has us 5th with 77 points but the last four play off places are covered by only a few points so a slip up or a sudden strong run of form by a side presently below us could easily change the final outcome. My best guess is that we will need the predicted 20 points out of a possible 36 to secure one of the play off places which is the current 1.67 per game we have achieved in the 34 games to date. We probably need 6 wins from the last 12 games plus a handful of draws to get us there. With transfer deadline day next month I wonder if we will add to the squad to make sure we have the fire power we need.

[HamptonMad]

If we dont go up Tony. It will be tough to go up next season if Woking Dorking and Oxford come down this season.

[Josh2002]

If those three are relegated, Oxford will end up in the North.

[Tony]

If we dont go up Tony. It will be tough to go up next season if Woking Dorking and Oxford come down this season.

Agree. I made the point elsewhere on the forum, every season we are going to be competing against two or three “big” sides dropping out of the NL. If our owners’ ambition is to get to EFL 2 in five years how do we compete financially to even get out of this division? The NLS is pretty open this season apart from Yeovil so we have a chance of promotion if we can get to the play offs but we wouldn’t be going in to them as favourites. Having said that Oxford managed it last year so not impossible.

[TW10]

The bottom line this team are solid and difficult to beat but are not good enough to get promoted. A good question to ask is who is good enough to comfortably play National League. For me Fernandez, Dubois and perhaps Seymour in the right sort of team. Quite a few others would be fringe eg Gray, Inman, Deadfield. But i just think there are quite a few better teams than us in the league. Happy to be proved wrong!!

[Shepperton Supporter]

Interesting comments, this season will be tough to get promoted given our current position and the teams around us. From memory , Mel did say that we were ahead of our plans and that we would need to bring in some players in the summer , the number depending upon the league we are in.
Bear in mind that the bulk of the team were with us last season and until Mel came were struggling.
As for who comes and who goes there are numerous factors that will have a bearing, we could lose some players to other clubs, Mel might decide that certain players have too poor an injury record to be retained. If we switch to full time, certain players jobs would preclude them from staying. Budget size and player ability will be decisive. Personally I would like to see recruitment of some players with experience of regular games further up the football period.
If the owners plans are to be achieved then next season’s summer squad changes will be a strong indication of what is planned.

[Tony]

The bottom line this team are solid and difficult to beat but are not good enough to get promoted. A good question to ask is who is good enough to comfortably play National League. For me Fernandez, Dubois and perhaps Seymour in the right sort of team. Quite a few others would be fringe eg Gray, Inman, Deadfield. But i just think there are quite a few better teams than us in the league. Happy to be proved wrong!!

If we did get promoted then I think there would be quite a major change to the squad assuming the club could afford it. Many players would not be able to commit to the requirements of a truly national league and yes, many would not meet the standard if our ambition was to do more than just survive. Don’t underestimate the costs both on and off the field of promotion. I am sure our owners are very aware of the potential investment needed. The more interesting question is what will we do squad wise next season if we are still in the NLS? More of the same or recruit from higher up the pyramid which will be more costly. Given the likely competition this may still not be enough so the question is then how long are you prepared to fund at a higher level without promotion? It’s a perfectly legitimate strategy to stay as we are and if we were to get promoted through the play offs at some point worry about the squad budget issues then. I think this is probably the strategy of 95% of all the clubs in the division.

[Shepperton Supporter]

Tony’s recent remarks are similar to those expressed elsewhere. I am sure it is the main topic at both board and investor level. The incidents of clubs being promoted only to fall back within a couple of seasons is high, just look at the current National League table.
I would look carefully at Maidenhead and Wealdstone who seem to survive. Devonshire recently said the number of points for survival is higher this year and this perhaps illustrates the increasing competitiveness of that league with so many ex league clubs with big fan bases. I might be wrong, but I heard that Wealdstone have a £10k weekly budget, if so, what do the big northern clubs spend?
Interesting topic that will no doubt be revisited many times in the next few months.

[Tony]

Wealdstone use the loan market well to push that budget a bit further. I suspect they have one of the lowest budgets in the NL but they seem to survive financially. If you think about it, full time teams with a squad of say 18 are probably paying up to a £750- 1,000 a week on average. Plus the management and coaching staff.

[Shepperton Supporter]

On these figures Tony, my £10k per week looks low (it may be out of date!)

[Tony]

Wealdstone were £10k last season. No idea about this.

[Tony]

Latest Football Web Pages prediction has us finishing 5th, Dartford, Havant & W, Dover and Eastbourne all relegated. Other than Dover, not sure I would ever have thought the other three clubs would be anywhere near the drop zone at the end of the season.